Escalating extreme weather events to hammer humanity

By Paul Beckwith

Extreme weather events are rocketing upwards in their frequency of occurrence, intensity, and duration and are impacting new regions that are unprepared. These events, such as torrential rains, are causing floods and damaging crops and infrastructure like roads, rail, pipelines, and buildings. Cities, states, and entire countries are being battered and inundated resulting in disruption to many peoples lives as well as enormous economic losses. As bad as this is, it is going to get much worse by at least 10 to 20 times. Why?

Greenhouse gas emissions from humans have changed the chemistry of the atmosphere. The optical absorption of infrared heat has increased in the atmosphere which raises temperature, and thus water vapor content, and therefore fuels more intense storms. The jet streams that guide these storms are slower and wavier and more fractured and cause our weather gyrations and weird behavior. Areas far north can get very warm, while areas far south can get very cold. Some areas get persistent drought. Then, the pattern can flip. The jet streams are much wavier in the north-south direction since the Arctic temperatures have warmed 5 to 8 times faster than the global average. This reduces the temperature difference between the Arctic and equator and basic physics forces the jets to slow and get wavier.

Why is the Arctic warming greatly amplified? The region is darkening and thus absorbing more sunlight, since the land-based snow cover in spring and the Arctic sea ice cover volume are both declining exponentially. The white snow and ice is being replaced by dark surfaces like the ocean and the tundra. The most detailed computer model on sea ice decline is a U.S. Naval Graduate School model, and it shows the sea ice cover could be gone by late summer in 2016. If this happens, the Arctic warming will rocket upwards, the jets will distort much more, and the extreme weather events will rocket upwards in frequency, amplitude, and duration and civilization will be hammered.

Paul Beckwith

Paul Beckwith is part-time professor with the laboratory for paleoclimatology and climatology, department of geography, University of Ottawa. Paul teaches climatology/meteorology and does PhD research on 'Abrupt climate change in the past and present'. Paul holds an M.Sc. in laser physics and a B.Eng. in engineering physics and reached the rank of chess master in a previous life. Below are Paul's earlier posts at the Arctic-news blog.

Paul Beckwith with sign (arrows highlighted by 

Sam Carana, from earlier post)

Below, a recent video in which Paul Beckwith discusses how a weaker Jet Stream lets warmer air move from lower latitudes into the Arctic (feedback #10).

From December, 2013 until early April, 2014 there have been persistent and very large temperature anomalies in the northern hemisphere (+20 C = +36 F in the Arctic, -20 C = -36 F in vast parts of the US and Canada). I claim that this represents a previously unrecognized large positive feedback acting to homogenize the temperature in the northern hemisphere.

Earlier posts by Paul Beckwith

- Abrupt Climate Change

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/02/abrupt-climate-change-by-paul-beckwith.html

- Our New Climate and Weather - part 2

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/01/our-new-climate-and-weather-part-2.html

- Our New Climate and Weather

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/01/our-new-climate-and-weather.html

- Are Alberta’s Tar Sands prepared for a torrential rain event?

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/10/are-albertas-tar-sands-prepared-for-a-torrential-rain-event.html

- Stop All New Fossil Fuel Megaprojects

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/stop-all-new-fossil-fuel-megaprojects.html

- Toward Genuinely Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/toward-genuinely-improved-discussions-of-methane-and-climate.html

- The Social Tipping Point

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/08/the-social-tipping-point.html

- Arctic Cyclone July 2013

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/07/arctic-cyclone-july-2013.html

- Arctic Ocean Events - Videos by Paul Beckwith

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/07/arctic-ocean-events-videos-by-paul-beckwith.html

- Climate change fighting town savaged by runaway oil train

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/07/climate-change-fighting-town-savaged-by-runaway-oil-train.html

- Extreme weather becomes the norm - what can you do?

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/06/extreme-weather-becomes-the-norm-what-can-you-do.html

- Thin Spots developing in Arctic Sea Ice

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/06/thin-spots-developing-in-arctic-sea-ice.html

- The Tornado Connection to Climate Change

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/06/the-tornado-connection-to-climate-change.html

- Anthropogenic Arctic Volcano can calm climate

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/01/anthropogenic-arctic-volcano-can-calm-climate.html

- Hold on folks… the times they are a-changin’

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/11/hold-on-folks-the-times-they-are-changin.html

- Hurricane Sandy moving inland

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-moving-inland.html

- Open Letter to Canadian MPs

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/open-letter-to-canadian-mps.html

- State of Climate Change October 2012

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/state-of-climate-change-october-2012.html

- Is death by lead worse than death by climate? No.

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/is-death-by-lead-worse-than-death-by-climate-no.html

- You are now entering the nonlinearity zone…

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/you-are-now-entering-the-nonlinearity-zone.html

- Vanishing Arctic sea ice is rapidly changing global climate

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/vanishing-arctic-sea-ice-is-rapidly-changing-global-climate.html

- Storm enters Arctic region

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/storm-enters-arctic-region.html

- Update on September Arctic cyclone

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/update-on-september-arctic-cyclone.html

- Arctic cyclone warning for September 7

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/09/arctic-cyclone-warning-for-september-7.html

- Paul Beckwith on ice speed and drift - update 1

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/paul-beckwith-on-ice-speed-and-drift-update-1.html

- Paul Beckwith on ice speed and drift

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/paul-beckwith-on-ice-speed-and-drift.html

- Another Arctic Cyclone brewing

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/another-arctic-cyclone-brewing.html

- Sea ice in the Arctic - Shaken and stirred (by a powerful cyclone)

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/08/sea-ice-in-the-arctic.html

- How to part ways with a climate denier that has incredible stamina...

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/07/how-to-part-ways-with-a-climate-denier.html

Post by Sam Carana.

Colorado flooding, what does the IPCC say?

Flooding in Colorado has caused at least five death. As of 14 September, more than 500 were unaccounted for. Nearly 19,000 homes are damaged or destroyed.

Paul Beckwith comments:

Total destruction. Roads. Homes. Power lines. Water pipelines. Sewer culverts and pipes. And an oil pipeline. Not to mention the lives lost and disrupted forever.

Just be glad that the oil pipeline was not something like Keystone XL or Line 9 or Line 6.

Wake up people. Isn't it ironic that extreme weather events are accelerating in frequency, magnitude, spatial extent, and duration and are due to the very abrupt climate change that is being rapidly worsened from fossil fuel emissions; from burning the very stuff that is carried by the oil pipeline infrastructure.

And politicians are either very stupid or simply slaves to the fossil fuel companies since they ignore all laws protecting the environment, and even rewrite the legal system to eliminate any laws that slow or prevent pipelines, tar sands, fracking and any other fossil fuel infrastructure from being built. While publishing outright lies slamming renewable energy.

No wonder police forces across the world are becoming branches of the military; they realize that the public will soon be furious at the politicians and corporations and government corruption at all levels.

Meanwhile, according to the dailymail leaked IPCC reports say that "Global warming is just HALF what we said". So, what's going on? For starters, it appears that the IPCC has been fooled into ignoring the dangerous situation in the Arctic, i.e. albedo changes, methane and further feedbacks. The cartoon below illustrates this, please comment and share widely! 

Threat to global food supply makes comprehensive action imperative

Climate change is strongly affecting the Arctic and the resulting changes to the polar vortex and jet stream are in turn contributing to extreme weather in many places, followed by crop loss at a huge scale.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said in a September 6, 2012, forecast that continued deterioration of cereal crop prospects over the past two months, due to unfavourable weather conditions in a number of major producing regions, has led to a sharp cut in FAO’s world production forecast since the previous report in July.

The bad news continues: Based on the latest indications, global cereal production would not be sufficient to cover fully the expected utilization in the 2012/13 marketing season, pointing to a larger drawdown of global cereal stocks than earlier anticipated. Among the major cereals, maize and wheat were the most affected by the worsening of weather conditions.

Below an interactive image with the FAO Food Price Index (Cereals), up to and including August 2012.


Apart from crop yield, extreme weather is also affecting soils in various ways. Sustained drought can cause soils to lose much of their vegetation, making them more exposed to erosion by wind, while the occasional storms, flooding and torrential rain further contribute to erosion. Higher areas, such as hills, will be particularly vulnerable, but even in valleys a lack of trees and excessive irrigation can cause the water table to rise, bringing salt to the surface.

Fish are also under threat, in part due to ocean acidification. Of the carbon dioxide we're releasing into the atmosphere, about a third is (still) being absorbed by the oceans. Dr. Richard Feely, from NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, explains that this has caused, over the last 200 years or so, about a 30% increase in the overall acidity of the oceans. This affects species that depend on a shell to survive. Studies by Baumann (2011) and Frommel (2011) indicate further that fish, in their egg and larval life stages, are seriously threatened by ocean acidification. This, in addition to warming seawater, overfishing, pollution and eutrification (dead zones), causes fish to lose habitat and is threatening major fish stock collapse.

Without action, this situation can only be expected to deteriorate further, while ocean acidification is irreversible on timescales of at least tens of thousands of years. This means that, to save many marine species from extinction, geoengineering must be accepted as an essential part of the much-needed comprehensive plan of action.

Similarly, Arctic waters will continue to be exposed to warm water, causing further sea ice decline unless comprehensive action is taken that includes geoengineering methods to cool the Arctic. The image below shows the dramatic drop in sea ice extent (total area of at least 15% ice concentration) for the last 7 years, compared to the average 1972-2011, as calculated by the Polar View team at the University of Bremen, Germany. This illustrates that a firm commitment to a comprehensive plan of action can now no longer be postponed.